Thursday, March 27, 2008

Analysis of Public Policy - Presentation on Global Warming

The following is a summary and "works cited" page for my March 25 presentation "A Level-Headed Response to Climate Alarmism."

In determining the answer to the question “are humans the cause of a marked increase in global temperatures”, the question must first be asked, is earth indeed running a temperature? To gauge earth’s temperature effectively (and to say if its climate is truly being altered outside of normal variation) we must look to the past. We find that despite claims to the contrary, present-day temperatures have not beaten the records set in the 1930’s.[1]

Actual, reliable records (not requiring inference through historical analysis) extend only back to around 1850. These records show that we have only risen 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past 100 years.[2]

The second question is, “are humans responsible for causing global temperature increases?” The role of pollution has been a constant factor in the claims of global warming advocacy. But in looking at the trends of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, we see that our concentration has changed only about .000006%.[3]

In fact, in 2006, the amount of CO2 decreased by 1.6%.[4]
Furthermore, various reputable sources have actually claimed pollution helps ward off global warming:

“Pollution May Slow Warming; Cleaner Air May Speed It, Study Says” (NYTimes)
“[Cleaner] Air trends 'amplifying' warming” (BBC)
Does cleaner air make hurricanes worse?” (MSNBC)
Burning Fossil Fuels Has A Measurable Cooling Effect On The Climate” (ScienceDaily)
Pollutants ward off global warming, study finds” (The Guardian)
“Less pollution may boost global warming” (The Seattle Times)

Global warming advocates claim humans are destroying rainforests which are invaluable to the survival of the planet and balance of the biome. But a study released in early 2008 reveals there is no evidence for this claim.[5]

Further research shows trees may have no effect on global warming[6] and could actually increase global warming.[7]

Study: Emission of smog ingredients from trees is increasing rapidly"'No solution' found in more trees"
"Scientists find plants cause global warming" (Original article removed, archived post on Free Republic)
"Nature can help reduce greenhouse gas, but only to a point"
"Models show growing more forests in temperate regions could contribute to global warming"
"Emission of smog ingredients from trees is increasing rapidly
"'No solution' found in more trees"
"Trees Won't Fix Global Warming"
"The Forgotten Methane Source"

The role of the sun has been neglected in our warming and cooling trends. Considering that the sun is the single source of natural warmth for planet earth, its importance cannot be overlooked. In examining its role, we find that various studies show the sun to be at a heightened state of activity. Some show the activity to be at a 1,000-year-high.[8] Others say an 8,000-year-high. [9]

Global warming proponents have claimed that glaciers all over the world have been melting. These reports have neglected the number of glaciers actually on the rise[10]as well as the numbers of glaciers that have been melting for decades prior to alleged climate shifts.

In summary, the scientific underpinnings of alarmist climate change do not stand up to strict scrutiny. Making drastic changes to economic policy would be speculative augmentation at its worst, and cause economic woes far worse than climate woes.

[1] Daily Tech 2007. “Blogger Finds Y2K Bug in NASA Climate Data” (March 24, 2008)

[3] Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center 2004. “Monthly Average Carbon Dioxide Concentration” (March 24, 2008)

[4] Energy Information Administration 2007. “U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Sources” (March 22, 2008)

[5] Science Daily 2008. “No Convincing Evidence For Decline In Tropical Forests” (March 20, 2008)

[6] LiveScience 2008. “Trees Won't Fix Global Warming” (March 20, 2008)

[7] Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 2005. “Models show growing more forests in temperate regions could contribute to global warming” (March 24, 2008)

[8] New Scientist 2003. “Sun more active than for a millennium” (March 20, 2008)

[9] Max Planck Society 2004. "The Sun is More Active Now than Over the Last 8000 Years" 2008, Mar. 24

[10] Sherwood,
Keith and Craig Idso. 2005.”Not All Glaciers Lost Mass Over the Past
” CO2 Science Volume 8, Number 46 (March 25, 2008)



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